Researcher Nikolay Petrov from the Moscow Carnegie Centre says that the financial crisis in few weeks will affect ordinary Russians all over the country with full force. In an article in the Nezavisimaya Gazeta he writes that the situation will result in major changes in relations between the authorities and the society and subsequently also for the whole political landscape.
The current Russian political system is not suited for this kind of crisis management, Petrov argues.
-The super-centralization and super-unitarization of the authorities excludes the possibility to have an efficient and operational reaction to the crisis phenomenon, which could arise and intensify all over [the country], he writes.
Social unrest
Unlike the social protests in 2005, which followed changes in the pension and social benefit system, the Kremlin will now not be able to buy itself out of the situation, Mr. Petrov writes, adding that the federal authorities in the current situation will have to have a dialogue with the representatives of the protesters.
-While the Kremlin before was the monopoly centre for decision-taking […] then now, the further away, the more, an active role will be played by the masses, Petrov writes. He argues that the appearance of self-organised political forces, not formed by people in the government, is inevitable.
Centre-Regions
With the financial problems and the subsequent strained economy, the transfer of power from Moscow to the regions is inevitable. Mr. Petrov believes that Russian federalism, weakened during the reign of President Putin, will be restored and that the Russian regions will get more independence. The governors might again be elected in popular elections and they will subsequently decrease their dependency of Moscow and become more dependent of regional elites.
Political parties
The crisis will also have major negative consequences for the political system constructed by the current Moscow elite. Nikolay Petrov believes it will be impossible for United Russia to keep its position as the one and only powerful party in the country. He argues that the party is dependent on continued economic growth and that it will lose support as the economy ends up in crisis.
Petrov believes none of the Kremlin-constructed parties will be able to handle the crisis and that perhaps only the Communist Party has the infrastructure needed for the situation.
Without changes in the system it will not be possible to withstand the crisis in our huge and diverse country, the researcher concludes.
